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  • Strong January and February for the S&P 500 are predictive of future returns

    Strong January and February for the S&P 500 are predictive of future returns

    According to this chart from Carson Investment Research and Ryan Detrick, a higher January and February for the S&P 500 can predict future positive returns on a 12-month basis. Results for the remaining 10 Months of the year were higher 26 times out of 28, while results a year later were higher a staggering 27…

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  • Week Ahead

    Week Ahead

    Nvidia bucks the trend and sends US Markets to new records; Japan rewrites history with new highs after that fateful Dec 1989. Europe outperforms the US on a YTD basis; 10-year Treasuries and other long bonds gained a little last week as rates finally nudged lower. Keep a long position in equities (with a 3%…

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  • Week Ahead

    Higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI stopped the raging bull. Earnings in 4Q23 continue to rebound, following a very positive 3Q23. Europe outperformed the US on a YTD basis; 10-year Treasuries and other long bonds lost further ground last week as rates nudged higher. Keep a long position in equities (with a 3% weekly stop), although…

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  • Week Ahead

    The unstoppable bull run in equities continues. CPI on Tuesday might complicate the Fed’s job further after some data signalling strong economic activity. Earnings rebound, following a very positive 3Q23. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 made further records; 10-year Treasuries and other long bonds lost a little last week as rates nudged higher.…

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  • Week Ahead

    Key week verdits: earnings are there aplenty, but high valuations do hurt, and with such a strong labor market you should not expect any rate cut soon (June?). S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 made further records; 10-year Treasuries and other long bonds lost a little last week as rates jumped following the surprise Nonfarm Payrolls. …

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  • Week Ahead

    Equities made further progress; 10-year Treasuries were stable, and other long bonds lost a little last week. Next week will be key, with all MAGMA companies reporting, plus the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.  Keep a long position in equities (with a 3% weekly stop), and start purchasing some bonds (max 20% of invested capital). The…

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