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Week Ahead
Equity rally continues, with bond yields staying muted. Iconic Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole gave way to the Fed’s pivot – more than 200bps of reduction in the Fed funds expected by the end of next year. Keeping equities neutral: the storm has passed but there’s limited room for further upside. The biggest tail…
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Week Ahead
Dramatic week sees strong equity rally; bonds make further gains; the USD weakens, while the JPY holds current levels. July CPI indicative of a 25bp cut in September; 3/4 cuts possible in 2024, with 100bps more to come in 2025. Raising equities to neutral: the storm has passed but there’s limited room for further upside.…
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Stock market crash triggered by a weak July labour report in the US, high valuations, in line earnings from Magnificent 7, and a very hawkish move by the BOJ; bonds rally; carry trades come almost undone. Pressure piles up on the Fed to cut with much more magnitude than expected before; 100bps of cuts now…
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US CPI surprises coming in below expectations; bond yields fall in the US and Europe. Equities have a positive week, albeit driven by value and rotation into small caps. Japan’s Nikkei 225 establishes a new all-time high before falling on Friday. ECB on Thursday will hold; watch out for EU CPI on Wednesday, and 2Q24…
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The sky’s the limit for Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 make new all-time record highs. No big disruptions from the elections, as Labour won in the UK and the New Popular Front is forecasted to win in France. Watch out for Chairman Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Tuesday, US CPI on Thursday, and US PPI…
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Slight losses for Equities; Japan shines boosted by the weak JPY; bond yields go up again. Uneventful Core PCE Price Index; still expect the Fed to cut in September and December. A disastrous debate by President Biden has left the Democratic camp wondering whether they should replace their candidate. Watch out for Chairman Powell’s speech…
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