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FOMC Sep 2024 – Speedball or Measured Pace?
Fed Funds Rates: A Speedball or a Measured Pace? As the Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell gave his strongest signal yet that interest rate cuts are coming, questions about the speed and depth of cumulative cuts remain! Market-implied Fed Funds rates, as reflected by the CME FedWatch Tool, are at odds with the FOMC’s last…
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Week Ahead
Value propels most equities higher; Nvidia good, but not good enough to lift Nasdaq to new highs. Bonds a little bit lower across the spectrum. Pay great attention to the August labour report coming this Friday, as it will guide the Federal Reserve in its easing process. Continue to keep equities at neutral: the storm…
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Equity rally continues, with bond yields staying muted. Iconic Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole gave way to the Fed’s pivot – more than 200bps of reduction in the Fed funds expected by the end of next year. Keeping equities neutral: the storm has passed but there’s limited room for further upside. The biggest tail…
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Dramatic week sees strong equity rally; bonds make further gains; the USD weakens, while the JPY holds current levels. July CPI indicative of a 25bp cut in September; 3/4 cuts possible in 2024, with 100bps more to come in 2025. Raising equities to neutral: the storm has passed but there’s limited room for further upside.…
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Stock market crash triggered by a weak July labour report in the US, high valuations, in line earnings from Magnificent 7, and a very hawkish move by the BOJ; bonds rally; carry trades come almost undone. Pressure piles up on the Fed to cut with much more magnitude than expected before; 100bps of cuts now…
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US CPI surprises coming in below expectations; bond yields fall in the US and Europe. Equities have a positive week, albeit driven by value and rotation into small caps. Japan’s Nikkei 225 establishes a new all-time high before falling on Friday. ECB on Thursday will hold; watch out for EU CPI on Wednesday, and 2Q24…
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