Exactly six decades ago, the Yom Kippur War of 1973 unfolded, spanning from October 6 to October 25. Over the subsequent seven years:

Crude oil prices surged from $5 to $50.
Interest rates climbed from 6.5% to 18%.
The price of gold skyrocketed from $42.22 to $875.
During the following 52 weeks, stocks plummeted by nearly 50%, yet they ultimately stabilized and returned to a roughly even position after seven years.

Inflection Point: Sadly, it appears that the current conflict between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to conclude here and may escalate as part of a larger geopolitical scenario. While we hope for a different outcome, it’s wise to brace for increased volatility in global markets and especially consider the possibility of reevaluating investments within the Middle East asset class.

Giorgio Vintani Tom Baldacci #geopolitics #oil #energy #inflation