The possibility of the conflict between Hamas and Israel expanding into a larger confrontation involving Lebanon, Syria and Iran, although a big IF, it is a scenario that can hardly be dismissed and it is solidifying as a baseline consideration.
We outline the reasons why we think Israel-Hamas war is a perilous global shock in what follows!
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is not happening in a vacuum, but rather against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions between the Western powers and the China-Russia bloc. What initially started as a trade war, followed by a tech war, is now gradually transitioning into a more direct manifestation of a new Cold War.
The growing likelihood of an expanded Israel-Hamas conflict is increasingly attributed to a convergence of interests between influential global players, namely China and Russia. Amidst his struggles in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin appears to perceive an advantageous opportunity in the escalation of the Hamas-Israeli tension, potentially leading to a broader confrontation between Israel and Iran. Such a scenario would inevitably draw the United States, Israel’s staunchest supporter, into a direct and contentious standoff with Iran.
Similarly, Xi Jinping sees potential benefits in a distracted US, steering away from its predominant focus on China. This confluence of motivations highlights the pivotal role played by Hamas’s acts of terrorism, inadvertently elevating Iran to the status of the paramount wildcard in an increasingly fragmented and volatile global landscape.
In an unprecedented scale of violence, Hamas’ recent assault on Israel has left a devastating trail, marking it as the deadliest terrorist strike by population count in history.
Shockingly, the casualty toll surpasses that of the infamous September 11 attacks in the United States by a staggering thirteenfold, underlining the sheer magnitude of this calamity.
Contemplating the meticulous planning and extensive groundwork behind an attack of such magnitude, the pressing question arises: what impelled Hamas to orchestrate a strike that could potentially invite severe repercussions, endangering not just their own survival but also imperiling the existence of the Gaza Strip itself? Is there a clandestine reliance on significant external forces that emboldened this audacious move?
Recent indications suggest that China has been significantly ramping up its crude reserves, potentially in foresight of escalating tensions in the Middle East. While this remains speculative without concrete evidence, the sheer scale of China’s crude stockpile expansion raises doubts as to whether the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict alone could prompt such a substantial move, given its limited impact on crude prices. It appears that there might be an underlying development brewing, concealed beneath the surface. Notably, data suggests that China has added a significant 810,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its reserves during the first eight months of this year, totaling approximately 197 million barrels.
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